Owning the material / IP is where value accrues.

Pangaea, Merantix, a16z explicit theses. Periodic $300M @ ~$1B presumes material-level rents. Surface analogy with pharma (margins 80%+).

• Bryce Meredig: "$100M raise = $100B exit needed = Dow 2.0".
• Sparks: "IP for new manufacturing material is hardly worth anything".
• Wildcat exit $73M after 18 yrs / $90-160M raised.
• Materials margins commodity-shaped vs pharma 80%+.

What breaks

Vertical-IP valuations re-rate. Funding rotates to enabler / services. M&A consolidation. Matter Loop optimally placed.

Trigger

2026–2027 Series-C cohort crack — when Periodic / Lila / CuspAI are forced to raise on flat or down rounds without commercial volume.